Tobias Preis is a German complex systems scientist. He is Professor of Behavioral Science and Finance at Warwick Business School and a Faculty Fellow of the Alan Turing Institute . He is a computational social scientist on the analysis and prediction of social and financial complexity captured in big data . Preis is also a Visiting Lecturer at University College London . In 2011, he worked as a Senior Research Fellow with H. Eugene Stanley at Boston University and with Dirk Helbing at ETH Zurich . In 2009, he was named a member of the Gutenberg Academy. In 2007, He founded Artemis Capital Asset Management GmbH, a proprietary trading firm which is based in Germany. He was awarded a Ph.D. in Physics from the Johannes Gutenberg University of Mainz in Germany.

Preis has quantitified and modelled financial market fluctuations. [1] [2] In addition, He Has Made contributions to general-purpose computing is graphics processing units ( GPGPU ) in statistical physics [3] [4] and computational finance . [5]

In 2010, predicted fluctuations are correlated. [6] [7] [8] [9] [10] The team discovered a link between the Internet and the Internet. [11] In a TEDx talk, [12] Preis highlights the Opportunities offert by studies of citizens’ online behavior to gain insights into social and economic decision making.

In 2012, Preis used Google Trends data to demonstrate together with his colleagues Helen Susannah Moat , H. Eugene Stanley and Steven R. Bishop that the Internet users of a higher per capita gross domestic product ( GDP ) are more likely to search for information About the past. The findings, published in the journal Scientific Reports , suggest a possible link between online behaviors and real-world economic indicators. [13] [14] [15] [16] Preis and colleagues examined Google search queries made by Internet users in 45 different countries in 2010 and calculated the ratio of the volume of searches for the coming year For the previous year (2009), which they call the Future Orientation Index . A comparison of the Future Orientation Index to the capita GDP of each country revealed a strong tendency for countries in which Google users inquire more about the future to exhibit a higher GDP. Preis and colleagues conclude from this study that a relationship potentially exists between the economic success of a country and the information-seeking behavior of its citizens online.

In 2013, Preis and his colleagues Helen Susannah Moat and Eugene Stanley introduced a method to identify online stock market moves, using trading strategies based on Google Trends . [22] Their analysis of Google search volume for 98 terms of varying financial relevance, published in Scientific Reports , [23] suggests that in large volumes in financial markets. [24] [25] [26] [27] [28] [29] [30 ] Similarly, In a study published in Scientific Reports in 2013, [32] Helen Susannah Moat , Preis and colleagues demonstrated a link between changes in the number of views of Wikipedia . [33]

In 2015, Preis and his colleague Helen Susannah Moat designed and delivered a massive open online race ( MOOC ) on big data. The course focuses on measuring and predicting human behavior. [34]

Preis is an academic editor of PLoS ONE . [35]

Footnotes

  1. Jump up^ Peer Teuwsen (August 15, 2011). “Es braucht ein neues Finanzsystem” . Die Zeit . Retrieved May 26, 2012 .
  2. Jump up^ Leonid Leiva (May 18, 2011). “Wie Finanzblasen platzen” . Neue Zürcher Zeitung . Retrieved May 26, 2012 .
  3. Jump up^ Block, Benjamin; Virnau, Peter; Preis, Tobias (2010). “Multi-GPU accelerated multi-spin Monte Carlo simulations of the 2D Ising model”. Computer Physics Communications . 181 : 1549-1556. Doi : 10.1016 / j.cpc.2010.05.005 .
  4. Jump up^ Preis, Tobias; Virnau, Peter; Paul, Wolfgang; Schneider, Johannes J. (2009). “GPU accelerated Monte Carlo simulation of the 2D and 3D Ising model”. Journal of Computational Physics . 228 : 4468-4477. Doi : 10.1016 / j.jcp.2009.03.018 .
  5. Jump up^ Preis, Tobias; Virnau, Peter; Paul, Wolfgang; Schneider, Johannes J. (2009). “Accelerated fluctuation analysis by graphic cards and complex pattern formation in financial markets”. New Journal of Physics . 11 : 093024. doi :10.1088 / 1367-2630 / 11/9/093024 .
  6. Jump up^ Preis, Tobias; Reith, Daniel; Stanley, H. Eugene (2010). “Complex dynamics of our economic life on different scales: insights from search engine query data”. Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society . 368 : 5707-5719. PMID  21078644 . Doi : 10.1098 / rsta.2010.0284 .
  7. Jump up^ Kevin Voigt (November 15, 2010). “Google searches predict stock market moves” . CNN . Retrieved February 13, 2011 .
  8. Jump up^ John Bohannon (November 14, 2010). “Can Google Predict the Stock Market?” . Science . Retrieved February 13, 2011 .
  9. Jump up^ Catherine Mayer (November 15, 2010). “Study: Are Google Searches Affecting the Stock Market?” . Time Magazine . Retrieved February 13, 2011.
  10. Jump up^ Eva-Maria Magel (November 15, 2010). “Ökonophysiker untersucht Google” . Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung . Retrieved May 26, 2012 .
  11. Jump up^ Yvonne Esterházy (August 29, 2012). “Handelsstrategie: Wer sucht, hat Angst” . Wirtschaftswoche . Retrieved August 29, 2012 .
  12. Jump up^ “TEDxZurich” . October 4, 2011 . Retrieved May 26, 2012 .
  13. ^ Jump up to:b Tobias Preis, Helen Susannah Moat, H. Eugene Stanley and Steven R. Bishop (2012). “Quantifying the Advantage of Looking Forward” . Scientific Reports . 2 : 350. PMC  3320057  . PMID  22482034 . Doi : 10.1038 / srep00350 .
  14. Jump up^ Paul Marks (April 5, 2012). “Online searches for future economic success” . New Scientist . Retrieved May 26, 2012 .
  15. Jump up^ Casey Johnston (April 6, 2012). “Google Trends reveals clues about the mentality of richer nations” . Ars Technica . Retrieved May 26, 2012 .
  16. Jump up^ Andrew Webster (April 6, 2012). “Wealthier countries are more interested in the future” . The Verge . Retrieved May 26, 2012 .
  17. Jump up^ Ami Sedghi (February 8, 2013). “Which countries are the most forward thinking? See it visualized” . The Guardian . Retrieved February 24, 2013 .
  18. Jump up^ Kate Bevan (February 7, 2013). “Germany knocks Britain off the top spot to become world’s most forward-thinking country in Google searches” . Daily Mail . Retrieved February 24, 2013 .
  19. Jump up^ Bernhard Warner (January 31, 2013). “What Google Searches About the Future Tell Us About the Present” . Bloomberg Businessweek . Retrieved February 24, 2013 .
  20. Jump up^ Caitlin Dewey (February 8, 2013). “Map: The world’s most and most ‘forward-looking’ countries, based on Google searches” . The Washington Post . Retrieved February 24, 2013 .
  21. Jump up^ Alessandro Alviani (February 1, 2013). “Germania Felix: più ottimisti di noi”. The Stampa . Retrieved February 24, 2013 .
  22. Jump up^ Philip Ball (April 26, 2013). “Counting Google searches predicts market movements” . Nature . Retrieved August 9, 2013 .
  23. Jump up^ Tobias Preis, Helen Susannah Moat and H. Eugene Stanley (2013). “Quantifying Trading Behavior in Financial Markets Using Google Trends” . Scientific Reports . 3 : 1684. PMC  3635219  . PMID  23619126 . Doi :10.1038 / srep01684 .
  24. Jump up^ Nick Bilton (April 26, 2013). “Google Search Terms Can Predict Stock Market, Study Finds” . New York Times . Retrieved August 9, 2013 .
  25. Jump up^ Christopher Matthews (April 26, 2013). “Trouble With Your Investment Portfolio? Google It!” . TIME Magazine . Retrieved August 9, 2013 .
  26. Jump up^ Philip Ball (April 26, 2013). “Counting Google searches predicts market movements” . Nature . Retrieved August 9, 2013 .
  27. Jump up^ Bernhard Warner (April 25, 2013). ” ‘ Big Data’ Researchers Turn to Google to Beat the Markets” . Bloomberg Businessweek . Retrieved August 9, 2013 .
  28. Jump up^ Hamish McRae (April 28, 2013). “Hamish McRae: Need a valuable handle on investor sentiment? Google it” . The Independent . Retrieved August 9, 2013.
  29. Jump up^ Richard Waters (April 25, 2013). “Google search proves to be new word in stock market prediction” . Financial Times . Retrieved August 9, 2013 .
  30. Jump up^ David Leinweber (April 26, 2013). “Big Data Gets Bigger: Now Google Trends Can Predict The Market” . Forbes . Retrieved August 9, 2013 .
  31. Jump up^ Jason Palmer (April 25, 2013). “Google searches predict market moves” . BBC . Retrieved August 9, 2013 .
  32. Jump up^ Helen Susannah Moat, Chester Curme, Adam Avakian, Dror Y. Kenett, H. Eugene Stanley and Tobias Preis (2013). “Quantifying Wikipedia Usage Patterns Before Stock Market Moves” . Scientific Reports . 3 : 1801. PMC  3647164  . Doi : 10.1038 / srep01801 .
  33. Jump up^ “Wikipedia’s crystal ball” . Financial Times . May 10, 2013 . Retrieved August 9, 2013 .
  34. Jump up^ Moat and Preis (2015). “Big Data: Measuring and Predicting Human Behavior” . FutureLearn . Retrieved April 13, 2015 .
  35. Jump up^ “PLOS ONE Editorial Board” . Retrieved February 24, 2013 .

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *